June 13, 2002

  • Is it just a matter of time?


    Larger than 100 meters in diameter and, at some point, approaching Earth at less than .05 Astronomical Units (1 AU = average distance between Earth and Sun or about 93,000,000 miles; the distance between the Earth and the Moon is typically .0026 AU or about 241,000 miles), Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) now number 439.  While none are known (or admitted) to be on a collision course with Earth in the projectable future, new ones are being discovered all the time.  Already in 2002, there have been 51 new such PHAs added to the watch list.  What’s even more disconcerting is that some of these space vagabonds remain hidden behind the Sun until their first (hopefully-->) flyby.


    Here’s a time series simulation of Asteroid 2001 YB5 (about 400 meters in diameter) which was discovered on December 27th 2001 and which flew past the Earth with its closest approach of 465,000 miles (.005 AU) on Jan 7th 2002—only 12 days after it was discovered:





    Asteroid 2000 W0107  (between 740 and 940 meters in diameter) will pass in Dec. 2040 within .0005420 AU or about 50,000 miles of Earth (about 1/5 the distance to the Moon!).  Damn!  Wouldn’t it be cool to land on it, take a ride, and then head back to Earth?!  Or maybe we should find a way to gather up all our nuclear waste and dump it on the asteroid with the hope that it will never get so close again?  LOL  I’m actually in favor of finding a way of diverting all these PHAs so that they impact the nearside of the Moon.  The Moon is too small as it is and needs to bulk up.  Besides, Moon-bashing could become a great public success as the amazing spectacle of watching nuclear-like impacts on the Moon becomes an earthwide Colliseum-like pastime...


    disgruntled earthling: “I’m bored.” 
    friend of disgruntled earthling:  “Well, what do you want to do?” 
    disgruntled earthling: “Bash the Moon.” 
    friend of disgruntled earthling: “Cool!  I’ll bring the 12-pack.”


    Of course, if we really get good at bashing, we might just divert some asteroids so that they crash into some other asteroids that have gone PHA.  And if we get really, really good at it, we can time those diversions so that the asteroid-on-asteroid impact occurs within dramtic viewing distance, say 500 miles above the Earth.  In any case, I really think we need to start playing with these things since it appears that the Earth lacks the ability to duck.  Which leads to another interesting question: What kind of retarded planet are we living on that lacks even the simple ability to duck?

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