August 30, 2001

  • "The world has achieved brilliance without conscience.  Ours is a world of nuclear giants and ethical infants." - Omar Bradley


    Imagine...


    An Investigation Into the Magnitude of Foreign Conflicts...


    ...using probability theory (statistics) to determine the relationship between the business cycle, the election cycle, and the frequency and magnitude of wars...


    ...if you were to imagine such, you might conclude:



    17) The probability of a Big War equals the probability of an unavoidable Big War plus (1 minus the probabilities of both unavoidable  Big Wars and Small Wars)(times the probability of an avoidable Big War).


    18) The probability of a Small War equals the probability of an unavoidable Small War plus (1 minus the probabilities of both unavoidable  Big Wars and Small Wars)(times the probability of an avoidable Small War).


    19) The probability of a No War equals 1 minus the probabilities of both unavoidable Big Wars and Small Wars.


    The authors of this staggering econometrically-modeled treatise are Gregory Hess of Cambridge U. and Athanasios Orphanides of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Bank:


    We present a general equilibrium model of conflict to investigate whether the prevalence of democracy is sufficient to foster the perpetual peace hypothesized by Immanuel Kant, and whether the world would necessarily become more peaceful as more countries adopt democratic institutions. Our exploration suggests neither hypothesis is true. The desire of incumbent leaders with unfavorable economic performance to hold on to power generates an incentive to initiate conflict and salvage their position---with some probability.  An equilibrium with positive war frequency is sustained even if all nations were to adopt representative democratic institutions and even in the absence of an appropriative motive for war.


    Such precocious scholarship that the world affords!  So why do I remain stuck on Shakespeare??


    Caesar's spirit, ranging for revenge...
    Shall in these confines with a monarch's voice
    Cry 'havoc!' and let slip the dogs of war...


                            --Julius Caesar, III:1

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