August 10, 2004

  • “This is a certain event,” said Professor McGuire. “It's a matter of how
    we cope with it, not whether or not it's going to happen… The U.S. government must be aware of the threat but I am sure they are not taking it seriously.
                 —Why America's Coast Could Be Toast



    What? Another terrorist attack?    No-o-o-o-o..


    “It sounds like the plot of a fanciful Hollywood disaster movie. A dangerous volcano in the Canary Islands erupts, sends a giant tsunami travelling faster than a jet aircraft into the major population centres of America's east coast, killing tens of millions and wiping out New York and Washington DC.”



    • At least 20 years separates each eruption. The Cumbre Vieja ('Old Summit') volcano last erupted in 1949 and its western flank is highly unstable. It could literally split apart next time the volcano erupts.
    • Monitoring might provide 2 weeks of warning of eruption.
    • Evacuation must be based upon a forecast of an eruption—but no forecasts are currently possible due to insufficient monitoring.
    • The danger cannot be eliminated by engineering: estimate it would take 35 million years (seems excessive, I think 25 million would be enough) to excavate the volcano.
    • After seven to ten hours, a giant wave would be swamping the Caribbean and crashing into the eastern seaboards of South and North America.
    • Throw in Boston and Miami along with New York and DC.
    • The mountainous wave would be 300 ft. tall and traveling at 500mph - as fast as a jetliner.
    • The water would sweep up to 20 miles inland, destroying everything in its path.

    Of course, my buddy Mike told me about this very same threat years ago.  But he's 'just' a machinist—what could he possibly have known (know) ?

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