October 7, 2001

  • I could be wrong, but prior to this current retaliatory initiative of Operation Enduring Freedom, I would have thought that there would have been an attempt to free the eight Western aid workers charged with promoting Christianity who have been put on trial in the Afghan capital of Kabul.


    My anticipation was that a Delta Force team would have been assembled to storm the prison where they are being detained no more than 15 minutes before the first strike. 


    Clearly, the survivability of these aid workers will lessen tremendously after this strike if they are still in captivation.  The possibility increases that members of the Taliban, in anger, may summarily start executing these workers as a symbolic penalty for the western alliance's decision to strike back.


    Hence, if such a rescue attempt wasn't mounted, what would be the likely explanation?


    Loss of surprise?  That is, alerting the Taliban and Al Queda that our retaliation was about to begin?  Possible, but not likely, since a 15 minute precision sortie might draw immediate attention, but given the Afghan communication system, would not likely propagate to sufficient levels of alarm to spoil our overall intent of a surprise attack.


    Lack of intelligence?  That is, unsure knowledge about where the aid workers were being held?  Very unlikely.  I recall even seeing a picture on TV of the compound where the workers were being held.


    A general unconcern on our part for these civilians who got in the way?  No chance. Zero probability.


    An assessment of the likelihood of success of such an operation having an extremely low probability of success along with a high probability of Delta Force fatalities?  Yes.  If unmounted, almost assuredly this.  And somewhere in this world there sits a military statistical analyst who precisely determined those two probabilities and called the shots: upon such predetermined statistical probabilities do lives hang in the balance.

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